Junta must begin talking instead of shooting

(Commentary) By May Ng

After bringing down heavenly wrath and facing the possibility of eternal damnation, it is certainly time for the Myanmar military to think and speak before resorting to violence against their political opponents.

According to an Afghan soldier, the first rule he learnt about democracy was to ask questions before shooting and he said that it was the hardest of all.

As Ko Moe Thee Zun, a student leader in exile often warns, junta's favourite old tactics of using thugs and monk imposters to stir up trouble in preludes to army crackdowns, will be useless against people this time in the face of overwhelming public distrust of the government.

The military must realize that unlike in 1988, the whole world is now watching. If the junta unleashes violence now, it will guarantee the beginning of the end of the Tatmadaw. The military has used violence and coercion since 1988 to subdue the political opposition and each time it inflames the passion for resistance even more.

As Ko Ko Gi has forewarned, the people to no longer fear the army.

Once the army starts shooting, it will begin the final chapter of tragedy for Myanmar and the Tatmadaw. China, India, Thailand and Russia will all profit but every Burmese including the military will suffer.

The military shoots because it feels threatened by the massive crowds and the soldiers are taught to defend the country against the enemies as the junta has defined for them.

Therefore it is time for the military to re-examine the definition of its country, people, and enemies.

On being released from prison in 2004, Min Ko Naing, the prominent student leader said that it is time to put reason ahead of passion to end Burma's tragedy.

To avoid the same tragedy like the 1988 bloody crackdown, the army must find courage to reason with the people instead of giving into fear and start shooting.

As the NLD, ethnic leaders and student leaders have all said before, Burma's future rests on a genuine, democratic, and peaceful national reconciliation.

Burma needs politicians as well as the military for democratization, rebuilding and national reconciliation.

To understand the role of the military in a new democratic government, the generals as well as the opposition must learn one final equation.

The political economist Robert D. Cooper wrote:

In a political game of "pure conflict" of distribution of wealth, one player's win is another's loss. And wins and losses sum to zero. In a zero-sum game of pure conflict everyone is an enemy because one person's gains can only come through another's losses.

But in another political game of pure coordination, of production of wealth, the interests of different players converge perfectly and the best plan for anyone is the best plan for everyone.

Robert Cooper said that, "in reality politics is a bargaining game with a productive, creative dimension." Instead of a pure win or loss political game, the future of Burma can be one government of coordination where different opinions and dynamic forces play out peacefully in the open, without having to fear each other. He said that instead of eliminating threats, democracy limits them.

The military junta must allow an immediate visit by the UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari and use the opportunity to begin a legitimate national reconciliation process.

The military must begin to release all political leaders, including ethnic politicians and student leaders. The military must start a dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi right away.

At the same time political, ethnic, students and religious leaders must all begin preparing for any possible outcome, to avoid the same mistake as in 1988, when the leaders of the uprising were caught unprepared and were not able to organize and take control of the government.

The present leaders of the opposition from many levels inside Burma and in exile must start talking. The United Nations with the support from United States and China must get ready to start providing expert assistance on political mediations and guidance on all-inclusive democratic political process, with the cooperation from the military government.

No doubt, only history will tell what lies ahead, but as Charles Tilly said in Trust and Rule that, "a certain level of trust is a necessary condition for democracy."

He explained that only when the citizens perceive the government to be trustworthy they will comply with costly demands from their government. The information confirming government's trustworthiness and compliance of other citizens contributes to the mass behavior of the people.

The army has controlled the people in Burma since 1962 by limiting their contacts with each other and the outside world and by minimizing information available to them.

The communication technology is finally severing the cord that kept the Burmese people in chain.

According to Tilly, armed with this advantage, even if we are likely to witness more of the same in the short term, optimists can also expect incremental democratization and erosion of inequality, injustice, and oppression even if not eliminating them altogether.

He said that the future will be the people to make.

As the monks are ushering in a new dawn with their chants of heavenly loving kindness the Burmese people must move beyond zero-sum game of political conflict to zero-sum loss of lives with a new game of political coordination; and finally raise their palms to Burma's bold and proud sons of Sangha and offer a new prayer for Burma.

May Ng is a proud daughter of Burma from the Southern Shan State and a member of Justice for Human Rights in Burma. She is an independent political writer.