China holding regime in check

THE Burmese military regime's unusual restraint in confronting the biggest and most widespread demonstrations against its rule for more than two decades is being attributed to the influence of its chief ally, China.

In the run-up to its crucial five-yearly Communist Party Congress in October and the Beijing Olympics next year, China is determined to demonstrate it is a responsible international citizen focused on global stability and does not wish to be viewed as a sponsor of dictatorships.

China has also developed close relationships with other members of the Association of South East Asian Nations, which has started losing patience with the recalcitrance of the Burmese generals, who seized power 17 years ago.

The strategic relationship with Burma has become crucial for China, providing it with potential access to ports on the Indian Ocean and easier links to the oil supplies from the Middle East and Africa.

China does not wish to see Burma's regime further isolated by a brutal response to the protests, which would cast a shadow over its own relations with the rest of the region.

As a Southeast Asian diplomat said yesterday: "The Myanmar government is tolerating the protesters and not taking any action against the monks because of pressure from China. Everyone knows that China is the major supporter of the junta so if (the) government takes any action, it will affect the image of China."

China's Tang Jiaxuan, a former foreign minister often used as a personal envoy by President Hu Jintao, told special Burmese envoy U Nyan Win on September 13: "China wholeheartedly hopes that Myanmar (Burma) will push forward a democracy process that is appropriate for the country."

That the state newsagency Xinhua circulated Mr Tang's comments reinforces their strength. He said that China "as a friendly neighbour sincerely hopes Myanmar will restore internal stability as soon as possible, properly handle issues and actively promote national reconciliation".

This, he said, was "conducive to regional peace, stability and development".

The strength of China's opposition to heavy-handed military action is reinforced by its own rueful awareness of the continuing overhang from the Tiananmen massacre in 1989, and by the extent to which the protests in Burma have been against the fast-growing presence of China there, as well as against the regime. Such anti-Chinese sentiments would be reinforced by brutal suppression.