Myanmar protests must draw wider public: analysts

Agence France Presse: - Griffin Shea
Wed 29 Aug 2007

Myanmar’s junta is struggling to stamp out more than 10 days of protests by pro-democracy supporters, but analysts said Wednesday that the rallies could fizzle unless the wider public joins in.

Since some 500 activists staged a march through Yangon on August 19, small protests have rippled through the nation’s economic hub and across into key provincial cities.

Even though more than 100 people have been arrested, including some of the nation’s top pro-democracy leaders, protesters continue to defy the threat of beatings and arrests to attempt new rallies in Yangon.

The question now, analysts say, is whether other parts of society will also take to the streets of the impoverished country formerly known as Burma.

“The problem is the activists alone cannot continue this. They will be arrested and arrested until they disappear,” said Thailand’s former ambassador to Myanmar, Asda Jayanama.

“If they manage to be the rallying point and draw out the crowd… that would have a good effect. But if the people have the same apathy in Burma, then activists alone can only do so much,” he said.

The military, which has ruled Myanmar for 45 years, tolerates no dissent. Plainclothes police and pro-junta militia are patrolling the streets of Yangon to quickly break up the demonstrations, which have remained small.

In at least three provincial towns, where security is lighter, hundreds of people have marched in the streets and received only official warnings.

On Tuesday, scores of Buddhist monks joined a protest in the key port city of Sittwe, which is a hub for Myanmar’s growing petroleum industry.

Myanmar analyst Win Min said activists believe they have popular support, but that he was unsure if the public was ready to risk their lives by joining the protests.

“People are clapping from the roadsides, from the apartments. That I think is significant,” he said. “The activists know the people support them, so they will be encouraged.”

Memories of a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 remain strong in Myanmar. As with the current protests, that movement began as a demonstration against the nation’s crushing economic conditions.

Soldiers opened fire on the crowd, killing hundreds if not thousands. The student leaders who spearheaded the uprising were sentenced to more than a decade in prison, but several have been released over the last three years.

Top leaders of the earlier uprising, including Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, were arrested again last week for organising the rally on August 19.

Debbie Stothard, of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma pressure group, said activists still fear the military could start shooting at any time.

“A lot of activists and observers are both excited and also concerned that we’re going to have another ‘88 on our hands, and like ‘88, we’re concerned about the military’s use of force,” said Debbie Stothard.

“If people still keep on demonstrating, even though the ring leaders have been taken, the regime may actually panic and start shooting.”

Most analysts say it is too soon to say whether the protests will achieve the scale of the 1988 uprising.

Many of the middle-class government workers who might have joined rallies moved two years ago to the new administrative capital Naypyidaw, some 400 kilometres (250 miles) away.

Win Min said the protesters would have to convince other other groups, such as factory workers and especially Buddhist monks, to join the rallies.

“There are many people supporting them, even though they don’t dare to participate,” he said.

Monks, who have a special role as cultural standard-bearers in Myanmar, could have a great impact if they start taking to the streets, he said.

“The authorities have to listen to the monks. When the monks join, it’s very difficult for the military to crack down,” Win Min said.