How to bring an end to Burma’s civil unrest

Bangkok Post: - Htet Aung Kyaw
Wed 29 Aug 2007

Burma’s recent history is repeating itself with the 88 Generation Students group once again leading an uprising. But the question that remains now is how this demonstration will end - at the negotiating table with the military junta, as the UN recommends, or in uncontrolled bloody civil unrest, as happened in 1988.

On August 15, the government, which holds a monopoly on fuel sales, doubled the price for diesel from 1,500 kyats (Bt40) to 3,000 kyats per gallon, and raised the price of gasoline (petrol) to 2,500 kyats. The price of a 65-litre canister of natural gas was raised from 500 to 2,500 kyats.

Authorities made these increases without any public announcement and most people only found out about them when they were asked to pay double their usual bus fare. Many bus services were suspended and hundreds of commuters could be seen lining up at bus stops. In addition, students could not go to school, workers were unable to go their factories, and monks were late for their meals. Pandemonium reigned.

“It is very hard to understand their [the military junta’s] mindset and we were all shocked when we heard the news,” said Khin Maung Nyo, an economist in Rangoon. Fuel prices should have been increased step by step rather than by this sudden drastic move, he suggested. “Anyway, I wish the authorities would make an adjustment to it as soon as possible”.

His wish has not been realised. “This is challenging us,” shouted Htin Kyaw, leader of the Myanmar Development Committee. He has been detained often in recent months for protesting over the high price of commodities. He has demanded that authorities cancel the fuel price increases within seven days - “otherwise they must face our forces” he said in a telephone conversation with the Democratic Voice of Burma.

Five days later, more than 500 people led by the 88-Generation Student group staged a rare protest in Rangoon, marching against the fuel-price hike. “We are staging this performance to reflect the hardships our people are facing due to the government’s fuel-price hike,” Min Ko Naing, leader of the 88-Generation Student group told the Democratic Voice of Burma.

From then until now, the fearless youths have led demonstrations in Rangoon, and these have spread to other parts of the country even though authorities arrested Min Ko Naing and a dozen of his followers.

“Today, we, the 88-Generation Students, will jointly be staging protests together with democracy activists,” said Htay Kyew, one of the remaining figures of the group now hiding in Rangoon. “Members of the National League for Democracy, monks, students who are currently attending universities, and people who love the country and want to see change in Burma, please join us,” he told the Democratic Voice of Burma from his hiding place by cell-phone on Friday.

While activists have been brave enough to protest, neither MPs nor high-profile officials have joined the current demonstrations.

“We have no plan to rally publicly rally, although we have sympathy for them,” said Nyan Win, a spokesperson for detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). However, members of his party’s youth wing have led the demonstrations and dozens have been arrested.

Hla Myo Naung, another 88-Generation Students group leader also in hiding, said that the NLD were representatives of the people and “they must understand what people need now”.

However, the NLD’s aged leading figures have not been in much of a rush to act in the current situation, though they did issue statements.

“Using violence to crack down on the protests will not provide a solution to the hardships people are facing today… These problems can only be solved when political parties and the government can discuss this together to find an answer,” the statement said.

United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon released a statement last week calling on the military to respond to peaceful demonstrations with restraint as protests spread across the country. “The secretary general calls on the authorities to exercise maximum restraint in responding to any demonstrations, and encourages all parties to avoid any provocative action. He calls for a constructive dialogue towards national reconciliation at this important time in [Burma’s] history,” the statement read.

The UN leader’s statement followed similar calls from the US, UK, Norway and human-rights groups earlier this week. The US State Department’s director of press relations Gonzalo Gallegos told reporters in Washington on Wednesday: “We call on the regime to engage in a meaningful dialogue with the leaders of Burma’s democracy movement and ethnic minority groups and to make tangible steps toward a transition to civilian democratic rule.”

However, Asean countries, China, India, Japan and other parts of the world continue to remain silent.

How should this situation be brought to an end?

There are three ways in which the current unrest could end:

1) The protests will not be supported by enough people and, also lacking the support of MPs, it will end unsuccessfully with all leading activists arrested;

2) A sufficient number of people join the current demonstrations but some of them disobey their leaders’ commands and fight back against pro-government mobs attempting to beat them. The authorities might bring in police and army forces and if that happens, the current unrest could lead to uncontrollable bloodshed;

3) A sufficient number of people join the protests and MPs from the NLD use these demonstrations as pressure to to push the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to the negotiating table, as all are requesting.

The time is now running out for the correct choice to be made. This is not only in the demonstrators’ hands but also in those of leading politicians from the NLD and ethnic parties. But even more, the crisis is in the hands of the SPDC. Either side may, in addition, need suggestions or intervention from the UN-led international community.

Htet Aung Kyaw is a senior journalist for the Oslo-based Democratic Voice of Burma radio and TV station.