Burmese junta stifles wave of peaceful protests

Financial Times: - Amy Kazmin
Thu 30 Aug 2007

Over the past 10 days, military-ruled Burma has been hit by a wave of small, peaceful protest marches by defiant activists and citizens infuriated by a sharp increase in rationed fuel prices. But the regime has moved swiftly and aggressively to prevent these acts of defiance from gathering momentum, using thugs to snuff out the protests and haul the participants away.

Rangoon-based diplomats say that more than 100 dissidents who participated in the marches - including the leaders of a 1988 student rebellion - have been arrested. State-controlled newspapers suggest they could be charged with violating laws that carry prison terms of up to 20 years.

The junta’s willingness to use force has served as an effective deterrent to Burma’s terrified citizens, despite their intensifying anger towards their rulers over growing economichardship.

“The public were sadly, but understandably, unwilling to show their support for the demonstrations,” said one Rangoon-based diplomat. “It’s dangerous, and they are trying to live life, and avoid direct political engagement because it ruins peoples’ lives.”

The military junta has planned extensively to avoid a repeat of the mass national uprising of 1988, which was triggered by anger at rice prices and other economic hardships. The uprising was bloodily suppressed by the army, with thousands believed killed.
In recent days, witnesses say that bands of pro-regime vigilantes known as the Swan Ah Shin (Capable Powerful People) have been posted around Rangoon, snuffing out any incipient demonstrations. Witnesses reported a heavy police presence in Mandalay, while monks and students were warned against demonstrating.

“The security apparatus has a pretty tight control of things,” said a long-time Burma watcher who was in Rangoon last week.

“On the streets of Rangoon, you have all these street sweepers who suddenly aren’t 40-year-oldemaciated women with bamboo brooms, but well built young men with metalshovels.”

But with many Burmese already struggling with a hand-to-mouth existence, analysts say that further economic shocks like the unexpected fuel price rise could prove a catalyst for more protest, and potentially violence, in the months ahead.

“They don’t care or understand what effect these things are going to have, or what percentage of the population are so close to the poverty line that they can’t absorb these kinds of shocks without falling into utter desperation,” the Burma watcher said.

“There must be a possibility that something like this will kick off such a level of suffering it will set off a rampage in one of these townships.”

Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese analyst in exile, said: “As long as people have food on the table, they won’t like the military, but they won’t think about demonstrating. But any mistake, or violence, could be a catalyst for people to go out on the streets.”

In recent days, Burma’s state-controlled newspapers have justified the sharp fuel price rise by saying the state could not afford such massive subsidies, given rising world fuel prices and increasing domestic demand.

But analysts say the generals appear dangerously ignorant of the potential repercussions of such abrupt policy changes. “They pull on one lever but have no clue in advance what things are going to go out of whack,” one analyst said.